For upper-level students at Bavaria's Gymnasium (grammar schools), the nine-year system has both advantages and disadvantages. While many students may be happy about the lack of Abitur stress, many others may prefer to graduate this year. Nevertheless, the G9 system ensures that almost all students will skip the exams. However, for those repeating 12th grade under the old G8 system, the situation is different – ​​they will be able to take their Abitur in 2025.
A total of around 5,000 candidates are expected to take their Abitur examinations in Bavaria this year. In 2024, there were approximately 33,000. In addition to repeaters, students who transferred from Realschule to Gymnasium or who attended the "Mittelstufe Plus" (intermediate level plus) are also eligible to graduate.
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Due to the lower number of high school graduates, there may also be fewer young people in Bavaria who want to start university this year. However, the Technical University of Munich (TUM) is taking a relaxed approach to the situation. "We currently do not expect a significant decline in newly enrolled students due to the transition from the G8 to the G9 system at Gymnasium (high schools) in Bavaria," TUM press spokesperson Stefan Kögler explained to our editorial team, offering two main reasons for his forecast.
For example, due to the very high proportion of international applicants, Bavarian high school graduates make up an average of only 40 percent of students at TUM. Furthermore, not all high school graduates begin their studies immediately after graduation. "The reasons are varied, but they ensure that special effects such as a significantly reduced high school graduating class are 'spread out' over several semesters, and we currently assume that numerous applicants with high school diplomas will begin their studies with us in 2024 or earlier, in 2025," explains Kögler.
Lecture halls could become somewhat emptier – Stable mix of school qualifications among trainees
Concrete effects could nevertheless be felt at the university. For example, some rows of seats for first-year students could be "somewhat more loosely occupied than is the case in other winter semesters." However, according to Kögler, TUM does not expect a significant decline. According to forecasts by the Standing Conference of the Ministers of Education and Cultural Affairs of the Länder in the Federal Republic of Germany, around 55,000 young people will begin their studies in Bavaria in 2025. The previous year, the number was around 68,000. After a brief decline this year, the number of first-year students in the coming years is expected to be similar to that of 2024.
The proportion of high school graduates among apprentices in Bavaria is low. In recent years, just under ten percent of those who have completed their general or subject-specific higher education entrance qualification have not begun university studies, Bavaria's Minister of Science, Markus Blume (CSU), told the BR ( German public broadcaster) .
In apprenticeships, there is a traditional distribution of school qualifications. According to Bertram Brossardt, Managing Director of the Association of Bavarian Business, for example, in the metal and electrical industries, significantly more than 30 percent of apprentices come from middle schools, while the rest come from schools such as intermediate schools, high schools, or technical colleges. Fewer high school graduates are therefore likely to have less of an impact here as well. (jr)