In three of the ‘Big Four’ English destinations – the United States, Canada and Australia – the percentage of enrolment by international postgraduate students fell by double digits in the January to March 2025 intake, says a new study published today. By contrast, Britain saw an 8% increase in this period, which accounts for one-third of all international enrolments.
Australia led the ‘Big Four’ in international undergraduate enrolment with growth of 9%. British universities saw no growth, and those in the United States reported a 1% increase. The number of international undergraduate students in Canada plummeted by 33%, two percentage points lower than the decline of masters and PhD students (-31%) in Canada.
Referring to the growth in the number of graduate students choosing Britain, Cara Skikne, head of communication and thought leadership at Studyportals, which co-produced the study, told University World News: “The UK has benefitted from enrolment declines in other Big Four destinations.
“While government restrictions, such as limits on dependant visas, continue to have an impact, the UK is rebounding compared to the same intake last year when the effects of those policies were most keenly felt.”
The Global Enrolment Benchmark Survey (GEBS), a near-real-time report that uses information from 240 institutions in 48 countries, is sponsored by the US-based NAFSA: Association of International Educators, the world’s largest association of international educators, the UK-based Oxford Test of English, and the Netherlands-based Studyportals, the world’s largest online study choice portal. The analytical analysis is provided by Studyportals.
Increasing global competition
The sharp declines the 2025 GEBS shows in international enrolment in US, Canadian and Australian universities have specific causes, such as the increased amount of funds that Australia has required international students to have since early 2023.
However, the report shows that the percentage of international students attending university in the Big Four has been declining since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2023, 38.4% of international students enrolled in one of the Big Four. In January 2024, the figure had dropped to 34.7%.
By the end of 2024, the number of international students choosing to study in the Big Four had declined more than four percentage points to 30.2%. In March of this year, the figure had fallen to 28%, according to correspondence with Studyportals.
Since the end of the pandemic, the percentage of students studying in France has moved in a narrow range; the 2025 figure of 3.8% is an almost 25% year-over-year increase. Austria, Ireland and Spain have, GEBS shows, “surged between 20% and 30% over the past year”.
Although the number of international students choosing China, Japan and Malaysia is small, 0.3%, 1.1% and 1% respectively, each of these destinations grew at a remarkable amount in Studyportals’ latest data – China: 32%, Japan: 24% and Malaysia: 12.4%.
According to Skikne: “While restrictive government policies and visa challenges emerged as a top concern for institutions in many parts of the world, Asia stands out as a region largely shielded from these pressures.
“Only 6% of institutions in Asian countries cited such issues as significant, highlighting a more welcoming policy environment that is clearly giving the region a competitive edge in attracting international students.”
For his part, Robert Lintzen, advanced analytics consultant at Studyportals, told University World News: “International higher education is becoming more competitive than ever. Countries like the UAE, through initiatives like Dubai’s Education 33 strategy, are making bold moves, aiming to become global education hubs.
“Meanwhile, traditional destinations face headwinds from increasingly restrictive immigration and post-study work policies. The balance of power in international education is shifting – and that shift is only expected to accelerate.”
Canada
The decline of international students in Canada is due to government policies: 93% of universities that responded to the survey said that restrictive government policies and-or problems obtaining a visa were significant obstacles to international student enrolment.
In 2024, the Canadian government cut the number of student visas by 45%; another 10% cut is planned for next year.
These cuts were in part a response to the housing affordability crisis, partially caused by the fact that colleges and universities did not have on-campus housing for the more than 1 million international students in the country. The lack of housing for international students was cited as an issue by 73% of Canadian universities.
An additional reason for the cut in international student visas is that some colleges were little more than “diploma mills” that were being used as a backdoor into the country.
On the ground, the 33% decline in undergraduates translates into 73% of Canada’s institutions reporting a drop in admission of international students and 8% reporting an increase.
At the masters level (which, as it is for every country surveyed, is the largest cohort of international students), the 31% decline translated into 82% of institutions reporting lower international enrolment.
Canadian universities were almost two times more likely than the survey’s average, 68% to 38%, to say that they expected budget cuts over the next 12 months; the loss of tuition from the decline in international students has already led to budget crises at a number of Canadian colleges and universities.
As a result, 100% of universities said it was “possible” or “very likely” that they would diversify into new markets, including increasing recruitment of American students anxious about President Donald J Trump’s policies.
It is worth noting, however, that during the period of the survey, the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), led by Member of Parliament Pierre Poilievre, had a 20+ point lead in the polls.
One of Poilievre’s talking points was the need to cut the federal deficit, which, in the past, has been done by cutting transfers to the provinces, which in turn led to cuts to universities. In the election held on 28 April, the CPC was defeated by the governing Liberals led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, who did not campaign on a deficit-cutting platform.
Australia
The 13% decline in Australia’s international postgraduate cohort can also be explained by government policies, such as the restrictions that came into effect in mid-2024, including the ending of the ability of international students holding temporary graduate and visitor visas to apply for student visas while inside Australia.
The reason for the 9% rise in international undergraduates recorded by Australian universities is unclear.
“The divergence of enrolment trends in Australia may have to do with the differences in the source countries-recruitment markets for undergraduate and postgraduate studies.
“There is also some speculation that undergraduate enrolments may be due to universities 'front-loading’ or securing students before new policy changes (such as visa caps, increased fees, or stricter requirements) take effect,” explained Skikne.
Almost as many Australian universities, 61%, reported a lack of suitable housing or accommodation for international students as did Canadian universities (63%).
Sixty-four per cent of Australian universities expect budget cuts in the next year; though, here too, the re-election of the incumbent government – Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party – which did not campaign on a deficit reduction platform as did Peter Dutton’s Liberals, could mean that grants to universities will not be reduced.
United States
The 13% decline in the US of international enrolment at the postgraduate level and 0.0% change in undergraduate enrolment were due to “restrictive government policies and-or problems obtaining a visa”, 92% of the nation’s colleges and universities reported.
Between January and August 2024, for example, the number of F1 visas issued to Indian students (the largest cohort of international students in the US) stood at 63,590 – a year-over-year decrease of almost 40%. Refusal rates for a number of countries had also risen significantly.
This 13% decline, it is important to note, coincided with the return of Donald J Trump to the White House and the arrests of, now, more than a thousand international students, many for minor or no infractions.
As reported in these pages, the day after Trump’s election, the number of American college and university students looking for information on Studyportals about studying outside the country jumped fivefold.
“Since the 5th of January [the day before the new Republican-led Congress convened], absolute student interest in studying for a masters degree on Studyportals has dropped by 54%, with the US losing 36% of its market share of total student interest,” said GEBS.
The 57% of university administrators that said that they considered staffing cuts to be either possible or very likely were answering the survey against the backdrop of almost daily news of cuts to agencies such as USAID, the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, and the National Endowment for the Humanities, which fund thousands of projects in universities and colleges, as well as billions of dollars in cuts to Columbia, Harvard, Johns Hopkins and other universities being punished for what the administration says was their refusal to counter antisemitism on their campuses.
GEBS did not survey students. Nevertheless, the survey’s findings about expected job losses at universities, Skikne said, are likely to further depress international enrolment in the United States.
“International students are highly attuned to signals of institutional and national instability. When sweeping budget cuts to public higher education in the US make global headlines, it sends a concerning message, not just about funding, but about long-term priorities.
“Students are making life-changing decisions and substantial multi-year financial investments; they want to feel confident that their chosen university will give them access to research and career opportunities throughout their studies and beyond,” she said.
Admission requirements
Universities’ responses as to whether meeting academic requirements and meeting English proficiency requirements were obstacles to enrolment varied greatly.
Eighty two per cent of the 17 Asian universities, which include four Japanese and two New Zealand institutions, answered that meeting admissions requirements was an issue, with 41% saying it was a “significant issue”.
By contrast, only 10% of the 92 American universities rated meeting admission requirements a “significant issue”, with another 26% rating it a “small issue”. Ten per cent of the 21 British institutions surveyed said it was a “significant” issue, while 57% said it was a “small issue”.
Sixty per cent of the 15 Canadian universities surveyed said it was a “small issue”. Globally, 35% said it was not an issue, while 44% and 16% said it was either a small or significant issue, respectively, and 4% did not know.
Australia’s 14 universities were the most concerned – 78% – with applicants’ ability to meet English language proficiency requirements. American universities were the least concerned, with only 2% answering it was a “significant issue” and 48% saying it was a “small issue”.
Fourteen per cent of British universities rated this a “significant issue” while 52% said it was a “small issue”. Fifty three per cent of Canadian universities rated meeting English language proficiency a “small issue”, while 43% were not concerned. Responses by Asian universities were almost evenly divided: 29% said it was not an issue, while 35% said it was a small issue and 35% answered it was a “significant issue”.
Tech-driven programmes, AI use
In most regions, university officials were sceptical about increasing online, that is, technology-driven, programmes and about increasing their use of AI in recruitment and enrolment management.
Only in Asia did the number of universities saying that it was “very likely” that they would expand their online offerings exceed 40% (41%); at 38%, British universities were the next highest, followed by the US at 30%. Only 7% of Australian universities reported that expanding their online offerings in the next year was “very likely”.
Again, the largest number of universities reporting that they planned on increasing their use of AI for recruitment and enrolment management were in Asia, where 35% said they were “very likely” to do so.
The figure was the same, 29%, for both British and American universities. Only 13% of Canadian universities said that it was “very likely” that they would increase their use of AI in enrolment and recruitment, while almost half as many (7%) of Australian universities said they expected to do so.
The rise of the ‘Big Ten’
“Amid sweeping political shifts in the United States, this survey offers a powerful snapshot of how policy turbulence is reshaping global student mobility.
“The message is unmistakable: international students are paying attention – and increasingly are turning away from the traditional ‘Big Four’ destinations in search of stability, opportunity and affordability,” said Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA.
“It is really about the ‘Big Ten’ now. If higher education leaders and policymakers fail to act, they risk losing not just talent, but also innovation, research and economic vitality that international students generate,” said Aw.