August 2025, Eye on Research
Commentary
I've asked Tom Green, Ph.D., a Senior Consultant at ̽»¨Â¥ and a seasoned voice in strategic-enrollment management, to share his thoughts on where higher education is headed and how institutions can handle it. His take on "rewiring" the sector tackles some of the tough questions we're all grappling with right now. You can read his commentary below.
I'm always interested in hearing different perspectives on the issues you face in your profession. If you'd like to contribute a guest commentary for a future post, feel free to reach out.
- Wendy Kilgore
Dr. Green’s Thoughts on the Future Pathways of Higher Education
For today’s higher-education leaders, there is no shortage of “dumpster fire” factors besetting the sector. If the demographic cliff, uncertain research funding, an uncertain and perhaps unwelcoming climate for international learners, major changes to student aid, and the demonization of higher education as “woke” weren’t enough, the recent from the Burning Glass Institute adds some serious gasoline to the fire. It reveals trends in hiring that limit the opportunities and ROI of recent college graduates. Companies are looking to AI to provide services and functions previously done by entry-level college graduates. Professional occupation hiring has plateaued since 2022, about the same time ChatGPT exploded onto the scene. Unemployment rates for baccalaureate holders (20-24 years of age) are higher than those for associate-degree holders and about the same as for some-college no-degree populations.
We’ve had some bad times in the past, even if they weren’t as compounded as they seem today. It’s at times like these I turn to the core of strategic-enrollment-management (SEM) principles. What does the data tell us, externally and internally, that can provide areas of opportunity? What can we control?
The COVID-19 pandemic was an accelerant to problems that were plaguing higher education before it hit. The latest factors appear to be yet more accelerant, making the dumpster fire hotter and more threatening. I recently began to write a series of articles that identify areas where we can control our future. I provide examples and methods for how that could occur.
The premise of this series, Rewiring Higher Education, is our higher-education institutions do a sound job of educating learners for lifelong careers. However, the way we are approaching the education of learners and the assumptions we continue to use are outdated and work against our long-term health. We must “rewire” the circuitry of what exists today to create a more modern, sustainable, appealing educational experience.
The first is available; it lays out the data and research that identify the areas for rewiring (or at least justifies my choices). The following articles will be available in the next several months and will address the following.
Who is higher education for? We must refocus our lens on the majority adult-learner population.
How does higher education present its value proposition? We must create evidence and draw clear lines between learning and career preparation.
How can the costs of higher education become sustainable? Our approach over the last 30 years has produced high costs, unfunded discounts, and stagnant net revenue. It must change.
What does digital transformation look like for higher education? Significant investments are required to align higher education with the needs and expectations of learners, faculty, and staff. We must understand those to invest wisely.
Not all institutions will take on all of these issues. Some may see opportunities in one, two or three of the issues. If you had asked me a year ago, I would have guessed that many of the wealthiest, most popular institutions might be exempt from considering them. Today, I am more convinced the entire sector may need to take on at least one, if not all, of these changes to thrive a decade from now.
̽»¨Â¥ Research Updates
Introducing AI-Generated Audio Summaries of ̽»¨Â¥ Research Reports
We're excited to announce a new feature designed to make ̽»¨Â¥ research more accessible: AI-generated audio summaries of our reports, White Papers, and Green Papers. Whether you're commuting to work, taking a walk between meetings, or you simply prefer auditory learning, you can now listen to key findings from our latest research.
We're starting with our most recent releases, including the LEARN Commission's Green Papers and recent research reports. Audio summaries will be available along with traditional downloads on our research-publications page. Look for the audio icon next to each report. They are also collectively available on
Your feedback matters as we refine this new feature. Let us know at research@aacrao.org whether these audio summaries help you engage with our research in new ways.
From Research to Vision to Reality–A Blueprint toward a Learner-Centered Credit-Mobility Ecosystem White Paper Released
Our comprehensive White Paper on a learner-centered credit-mobility ecosystem has been released. This report represents the culmination of over a decade of ̽»¨Â¥ research, featuring analysis of survey data from 36 Texas public higher-education institutions that serve as a microcosm of national credit-mobility challenges.
The paper demonstrates that core barriers aren't technological gaps but fundamental operational deficiencies. Data reveal that institutions often manually process electronic transcripts despite automation capabilities, lack comprehensive articulation rules, and struggle with fragmented technology systems that have been built over time.
The paper presents a strategic framework that prioritizes establishing strong operational foundations before pursuing advanced solutions, fostering collaborative ecosystems that support underresourced institutions, and creating scalable implementation approaches. Without fixing these foundational issues, the credit-mobility ecosystem cannot achieve holistic improvement.
Enrollment-Management Reality Check: How Community and Technical Colleges Actually Handle It | Results of the April 2025 60-Second Survey
In April 2025, ̽»¨Â¥ deployed a focused 60-second survey to enrollment-management professionals at technical and community colleges. The survey asked how, or if, their institution engages in enrollment management and their level of professional interest in enrollment management.
Key findings reveal interesting contradictions in the field.
96% of respondents claim they engage in enrollment management. However, only 54% refer to their strategic-enrollment management (SEM) plan "most of the time" or "always" when making decisions.
Among institutions without SEM plans, common explanations include leadership turnover and organizational chaos, resource constraints, prioritizing process over product, and the "it's in the works" status.
76% of respondents indicate they want research on retention-strategy effectiveness, highlighting a clear appetite for evidence-based approaches to learner success.
Forthcoming ̽»¨Â¥ Research Releases
High School Dual Enrollment Benchmark Report: Our collaborative effort with NACEP has culminated in an updated benchmark report that refreshes our 2016 analysis with current practices and policies. This comprehensive resource serves as a field guide to the evolving dual-enrollment landscape, featuring 2024 insights and data-driven analysis of current trends. We've moved the release date from late summer to September 10, 2025, to ensure the report meets our highest quality standards and provides the most comprehensive analysis possible. The report will provide valuable context for understanding how dual-enrollment programs have expanded and changed over the past 8 years.
Beyond Next Semester: The Advantages of Annual Scheduling–Results of the June 2025 60-Second Survey: The results of the June 2025 60-second survey on academic scheduling practices, Beyond Next Semester: The Advantages of Annual Scheduling, will be released September 23, 2025. The report reveals that while 74% of institutions still operate on term-by-term scheduling, 63% either use or aspire to implement annual scheduling. This research was made possible in part by Ad Astra; it is based on 471 institutional responses. The research uncovers a surprising disconnect. Even institutions practicing annual scheduling often limit learners to term-by-term registration, missing key opportunities for improved persistence and completion outcomes. Keep an eye on your inbox for this report.
2025 Career Profile of Chief Admissions Officers–This survey supporting this report closed on August 22, 2025. The report will be available before the end of the year.
Research that Reflects Reality: Why Your Participation Matters
The best research comes from the people doing the work. When you share your experiences through our surveys, you're providing data points and you're ensuring our findings reflect the real challenges and innovations happening across higher education. Your front-line perspective is what transforms academic research into actionable insights that benefit the entire profession.
We know your time is valuable, so we're offering $10 electronic gift cards through Giftbit for the first 250 completers of select surveys. Not interested in the incentive? You can donate it to charity instead.
Current opportunities to make your voice heard.
AI in Academic Operations Survey (with Coursedog): Deploying in mid-September, this 60-second survey explores how institutions are using (or thinking about using) AI in day-to-day academic operations. Your real-world perspective–whether you're embracing AI or proceeding cautiously–helps us understand where the field is heading.
October–Admissions Staffing Survey: Our rebooted deep dive examines how admissions offices are structured and staffed. Understanding who does this work is as important as understanding the work itself.
December–Precollege Programs: In early December, we're going to update the 60-second precollege-program survey last deployed in 2018. Using the qualification “institution-sponsored/organized programs and activities for K-12 school participants typically not yet enrolled in college as degree-seeking learners,” we will benchmark current program offerings and compare 2025 programs to those from 2018.
Remember–Every survey response helps ensure ̽»¨Â¥'s research reflects the diversity of our field's experiences. Ready to contribute? Keep an eye on your inbox for survey invitations.
Call for Participation
Understanding Linguistic Diversity on Our Campuses
Our research focuses on understanding the learners we serve. When you participate in studies, such as Dr. Gail Shuck's, Ph.D., multilingual-learner research, you're helping to build a comprehensive picture of linguistic diversity across U.S. higher education. Every response adds crucial insight into how institutions can better identify and support multilingual learners from immigrant and refugee backgrounds.
Despite strong partnerships between academic support programs and admissions offices, many institutions lack nuanced data about non-International, multilingual learners. This knowledge gap affects our ability to provide appropriate language support and track persistence among linguistically diverse populations. Your institution's experience matters.
Dr. Shuck plans to publish and present findings to improve higher education's efforts in understanding campus-linguistic diversity and providing targeted language-based support. Below are some things Dr. Shuck would like from you to help her in her mission.
Language-Related Questions Survey: about the language-related questions your institution asks newly admitted U.S.-resident undergraduate learners is available. Whether your institution has robust data collection or is just beginning to explore this area, your perspective helps map the national landscape.
Data-Usage Insights: How does your institution use language-related data for outreach, support, and retention reporting? Your practices–successful or challenging–contribute to understanding effective approaches.
Help us understand how higher education can better serve linguistically diverse communities. Participate in the survey and offer your advice.Your participation could influence institutional policies and practices to better serve multilingual learners nationwide.
Current Higher-Education Research and Related Topics
University of Phoenix Finds Improved Learner Success From Resequencing Courses
A new from the University of Phoenix examines how repositioning a high-performing health-and-wellness course earlier in a learner’s academic journey could improve outcomes for adult learners who face multiple risk factors for college success. The research tested whether this strategic course-sequencing change could boost second-course pass rates while maintaining strong performance in subsequent courses. This could lead to a permanent curriculum modification if positive results were sustained for 6 months. Key findings and context include the following.
Adult learners at the University of Phoenix typically have three or more traditional risk factors (60% are first-generation, 76% work full-time, 87% have dependents).
Learners with these risk factors show significantly lower graduation rates, ranging from 19% for single parents to 47% overall, according to federal data.
Moving the health-and-wellness course earlier in the sequence improved second-course pass rates without negatively impacting later course performance.
The intervention specifically targeted first-year learners, when course pass rates are critical predictors of long-term success.
Positive results were durable enough that the institution made permanent changes to their first-year course sequence after observing sustained improvements 6 months after implementation.
Report Examines the Growing Significance of Microcredentials
A from Coursera (download required) examines the growing impact and global adoption of microcredentials. It reveals how short-form certifications are transforming education and employment by bridging the skills gap between academic learning and industry demands. Based on surveys of over 2,000 learners and employers across multiple regions, research demonstrates that microcredentials are becoming essential tools for career advancement, with particularly strong momentum in generative AI and credit-bearing programs. Key findings and trends include the following:
Nearly 90% of learners view microcredentials as critical for job success
96% of employers believe microcredentials strengthen job applications, leading to higher starting salaries (often 10-to-15% increases) and reduced training costs
Generative AI emerges as the most sought-after skill; 86% of learners prioritize it, and 96% believe generative AI training should be integrated into degree programs
75% of employers prefer less experienced candidates with GenAI credentials over more experienced ones without these credentials
Credit-bearing microcredentials show exceptional appeal; 94% of learners want credentials that count toward their degrees, and institutions report significantly higher enrollment and engagement rates for programs offering academic credit
33% of learners have earned microcredentials; most pursue multiple certifications, resulting in tangible career benefits
Among entry-level employees, career benefits include 28% receiving pay increases and 21% earning promotions
97% of employers use, or are exploring, competency-focused recruitment, representing a 20% jump since 2023, validating microcredentials as key differentiators in today’s job market
Learner Persistence and Retention Continues to Rise
A new on college-learner persistence and retention patterns from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center analyzes fall 2023 enrollees, highlighting encouraging overall trends and concerning disparities among different learner populations. The research introduces fall-to-spring persistence tracking as a new early indicator of learner success, recognizing the need for more immediate data given demographic challenges facing higher education. Key findings include the following.
Overall persistence rates reached their highest levels since 2015; 86.4% of first-year learners returned for the spring semester, and 77.6% persisted into their second fall semester, suggesting improved institutional support systems.
Significant disparities exist among learner populations; part-time learners show lower persistence (67.4%) compared to full-time learners (92.1%). This highlights the need for targeted support strategies.
Age emerges as a critical factor; learners 20 and younger demonstrate 28% higher fall-to-spring persistence (89.7%) than learners 25 and older (61.4%). This indicates different challenges for nontraditional learners.
Racial disparities persist in retention patterns. Hispanic, Black, multiracial, Native American, and Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander learners experience lower persistence rates than White and Asian learners.
Long-Term Study Finds Value in Intensive Learner Support
An 8-year from MDRC evaluates the sustained effectiveness of Ohio's model for Accelerated Study in Associate Programs (ASAP). The model provides comprehensive financial, academic, and personal support to low-income community-college learners through a randomized controlled trial involving over 1,500 learners across three institutions. Research demonstrates that intensive learner-support programs can produce lasting improvements in both educational attainment and economic outcomes, with benefits persisting well beyond program completion. Key findings and implications include the following.
The program achieved a 15% increase in graduation rates after 8 years (46% versus 31% for the control group). This represents nearly a 50% improvement that has remained steady for five consecutive years, indicating learners earned degrees they may not otherwise have obtained.
Participants earned $3,337 more annually than control-group learners in year 8 (a 14% increase). The earnings gap expanded from earlier follow-up periods as degree benefits compounded over time.
The program's impact extended beyond associate degrees; participants achieved a 6.2% advantage in bachelor's-degree completion (17.6% versus 11.4%), despite receiving no additional support after transferring to 4-year institutions.
Effectiveness varied across demographic subgroups. Women showed greater graduation-rate improvements (18% versus 8% for men). Men demonstrated greater earnings gains ($7,597 versus $1,720 for women).
Increased Graduation Rates Have Intergenerational Positive Effects
This from the NBER conducts a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of the City University of New York (CUNY)'s Accelerate, Complete, and Engage (ACE) program. It was designed to improve college graduation rates. It does so by estimating the long-term economic and social returns from a nearly 12% increase in 5-year graduation rates found in a prior randomized controlled trial. Research goes beyond traditional program evaluation by quantifying both direct participant benefits and intergenerational effects on participants' children, providing a more complete picture of the program's societal value. Key findings include the following.
The program generates substantial net social benefits of over $48,000 per participant over a lifetime through increased earnings, improved labor force participation, better health outcomes and reduced reliance on public-assistance programs.
Intergenerational benefits for participants' children nearly triple the total social value, bringing net benefits to over $130,000 per participant when accounting for improved outcomes for the next generation growing up in higher-earning households.
The analysis represents a methodological advancement in program evaluation by systematically incorporating second-generation effects. These effects are rarely quantified in higher education cost-benefit studies despite their substantial contribution to long-term social returns.
Results remain strongly positive even under conservative assumptions about program-impact persistence, though the magnitude of benefits is sensitive to whether graduation advantages fade over time as control-group members eventually catch up.
Opinions on Value and Purpose of Higher Education Cross Political Lines
This presents findings from New America's ninth annual Varying Degrees survey, which examined over 1,600 American adults' perspectives on higher education during 2025. Despite intense political scrutiny of colleges and universities, research reveals Americans across party lines share remarkably similar views about the fundamental value and purpose of higher education. Key findings include the following.
Shared educational values–97 to 98% of all Americans believe colleges should equip learners with job-relevant skills. Strong majorities also support broader outcomes, such as developing critical thinking (91%) and informed citizenship (93%).
Beyond job training–Americans overwhelmingly agree that college should develop writing, communication, and reasoning skills, not just vocational preparation.
Persistent concerns about higher education–40% of respondents are satisfied with higher education's current state; 54% see colleges having a positive national impact (with sharp partisan differences on this measure).
Investment value recognized–Despite concerns, 73% of Americans still view postsecondary education as offering a good return on investment. Figure 1.
Cost as primary barrier–Affordability emerges as the top concern; most respondents from both parties identify college costs as the main obstacle to learner enrollment and completion. The majority still support increased federal and state funding to improve affordability.
Figure 1: Political Views on Higher Education as an Investment.
Varying Degrees 2025: Americans find common ground in Higher education. (n.d.). New America. https://www.newamerica.org/education-policy/reports/varying-degrees-2025-americans-find-common-ground-in-higher-education/executive-summary
Private Nonprofits Continue Discounting Tuition at an Increased Rate
An from Higher Ed Dive reports on the National Association of College and University Business Officers' (NACUBO) findings that private nonprofit colleges are offering increasingly generous tuition discounts to attract learners. The average discount rate hit a preliminary record high of 56.3% for first-time undergraduates in 2024-25. Data highlights how institutions are using financial aid as a competitive strategy, although this approach creates revenue pressures that may threaten operational sustainability. Key findings include the following.
Record-high discount rates–Private nonprofits are now discounting tuition by an average of 56.3% for new learners, meaning they're giving away roughly 56 cents in aid for every dollar they could charge.
Decade-long upward trend–Tuition discount rates have climbed steadily from 48% in 2015-16 to 56.3% in 2025-25, while the percentage of learners receiving institutional aid has increased from 87.2% to 89.8%.
Broader learner coverage–Nearly 90% of first-time learners now receive some form of institutional financial aid; average package sizes have grown over time.
Funding-source concerns–More than 50% of institutional aid comes from undedicated sources, such as foregone tuition revenue and general funds, rather than dedicated endowment income.
Revenue sustainability challenges–Despite higher discount rates, net tuition revenue is expected to decline by 0.8% in 2024-25, raising questions about the long-term financial viability of aggressive discounting strategies.
Study Abroad Remains Popular, Despite Rising Costs and Safety Concerns
A of U.S. college learners conducted by Terra Dotta, LLC. reveals sustained high interest in international-education experiences. Up to 76% of those surveyed expressed plans to study abroad and over 90% recognized its importance for personal development. However, financial barriers and safety concerns are increasingly shaping learner decisions about participating in these programs. Figure 2.
Cost is the primary obstacle–48% of learners cite high expenses as the main deterrent. Most expect to spend $5,000 to $10,000 on their experience; 38% plan to rely on financial aid, which many feel is inadequately promoted by their institution.
The UK leads destination preferences–41% of learners planning to study abroad prefer the United Kingdom; 66% targeted the Spring 2026 semester for their international experience.
Geopolitical tensions influence decisions–44% of learners expressed general safety concerns. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East specifically caused 75% of learners to reconsider their study-abroad plans, representing a notable 2025 trend.
Early interest drives college choice–40% of learners develop study-abroad interest during high school. For 35% of respondents, available international programs influenced their college-selection process.
Social media shapes awareness–Instagram emerges as the top platform where learners first learn about study-abroad opportunities. This suggests institutions should prioritize digital outreach strategies.
Figure 2: What Influenced Your Decision Not to Study Abroad?
Source: ebook Voice of Students 2025. (n.d.). https://www.terradotta.com/ebook-voice-of- learners-2025.html
College Graduates Question Academic Preparation and Language Learning Decisions
A recent study from Preply examines how college graduates retrospectively evaluate their educational experiences. The study focuses on career preparation and language-learning choices made during a learner’s academic years. Research reveals significant concerns about job-market readiness and widespread regret about missed learning opportunities.
Many graduates feel unprepared for employment–50% of Americans believe their college major failed to prepare them adequately for the realities of the job market they entered after graduation.
Top career-language preferences–Spanish, Mandarin and French are identified by graduates as the most valuable for gaining competitive advantages in their professional careers.
Language learning regret is widespread–Over 35% of Americans who skipped foreign-language courses during college now wish they had made different academic choices.
Language barriers limit global career mobility–71% of Americans would consider international job opportunities, if communication obstacles weren't a concern.
Networking and financial decisions dominate college regrets–Graduates commonly regret not building stronger professional networks during school and taking on excessive student-loan debt.
One in six Americans regrets their entire college experience.
Artificial-Intelligence Use in Essay Writing Shows Concerning Cognitive Costs
A preliminary from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology investigates the cognitive impact of using large language models (LLMs), like ChatGPT, for essay writing. The study compares brain activity, writing quality and engagement of 54 participants divided into LLM, search-engine and brain-only (using no LMM) groups over four sessions spanning 4 months. Research reveals potentially troubling effects of AI assistance on learning and cognitive engagement, though the authors emphasize these findings are preliminary and require peer review.
Brain connectivity decreases with AI assistance. EEG analysis showed participants using LLMs had the weakest neural-connectivity patterns, while brain-only participants exhibited the strongest, most widespread brain networks, with search-engine users falling in between.
LLM users show reduced ownership and recall. These users reported feeling less ownership of their essays and demonstrated poorer ability to quote from work completed just minutes earlier.
Performance declined across multiple measures. Over the 4-month study period, LLM-group participants consistently performed worse than brain-only participants at neural, linguistic and scoring levels, despite initial apparent benefits.
Switching tools revealed lasting cognitive effects. When LLM users switched to brain-only writing in session four, they showed continued weaker neural connectivity and underengagement, while brain-only users adapting to LLMs demonstrated better memory recall.
Study limitations require cautious interpretation. The research acknowledges significant constraints, including a small sample size from limited geographic areas, that focus only on ChatGPT, lack of task subdivision analysis and findings that may not generalize beyond educational essay-writing contexts.